LAND USE

Prediction for 2070:

As the demand for wool decreases and land becomes increasingly more valuable, a likely prediction is that future New Zealand will not have the money or land resource to support its wool market.

This prediction is based on the following areas:

1. New Zealand's increasing population

2. Meat and Dairy Industries supassing the Wool Industry

By 2070, New Zealand’s population is estimated to be 6,111,000 (Wulf, 2012). That’s just under two million more individuals than our current population.

An average sheep farm takes up 443 Ha2 of land (Average New Zealand Farm Size by Farm Type, 2010) .

3. Synthetic materials being in higher demand

Industrial Buildings take up less land space than a sheep farm, therefore it is more cost effective to manufacture synthetic fibres instead of wool.

New Zealand's increasing population

By 2070, New Zealand’s population is estimated to be 6,111,000 (Wulf, 2012). That’s just under two million more individuals than our current population. An increasing population means land use becomes more valuable as there is higher demand for more facilities to accommodate the larger population. Food, water, housing, healthcare and education facilities are likely to get higher priority on the use of land, as they cover the essential human needs.

Sheep farming takes up a large amount of space, and for an industry that has been on the decline for the last 20 years, it is very likely that it will become an unfavourable and a disadvantageous use of land (Stringleman, 2015) .Slowly, traditional New Zealand wool farming areas like Manawatu, Nelson, Melborough, Otago, Southland, Wairarapa and Cantebury, will become more residential to keep up with the increasing population and decreasing profits in wool farming (Agricultural Regions of New Zealand, 2013). If nothing is changed to improve the wool industry in New Zealand, it is a sound prediction that by 2070 it will not be a common practice.

Meat and Dairy industries surpassing the Wool Industry

An average sheep farm takes up 443 Ha2 of land. In terms of farming land space, sheep farming takes up a considerately large amount, second only to cattle beef farming (678.7 Ha2) (Average New Zealand Farm Size by Farm Type, 2010). More profitable types of farming such as dairy cattle farming only takes 172.2Ha2 which shows why so many wool farmers are moving to dairy farming (Average New Zealand Farm Size by Farm Type, 2010).

Land size is one of the many benefits for farmers moving to dairy farming. Unlike the Wool Industry, the Dairy Industry continues to be in high demand and is most profitable. It takes up a quarter of New Zealand’s economic profits and it is unlikely to change with New Zealand leading the world in dairy farming (Stringleman, Sheep farming, 2015). Unlike wool farming, new innovative strategies for sustaining the Dairy Industry in the future have already been developed to be implemented by 2020 (Stratergy for Sustainable Dairy Farming , 2013).

Synthetic Materials being in higher demand

As stated previously, an average sheep farm takes up a large area of land, as land space is going to be an issue in future years, synthetic fibres are the more affordable and practical way to go. You would be able to produce more material in a smaller land space and in a faster time period. In addition, manufacturing synthetic fibres is also a more reliable practice as weather conditions and health factors of the animals do not need to be taken into account (Synthetic Fibres, 2015)

REFERENCES

Agricultural Regions of New Zealand. (2013). Retrieved from NZ Overview: http://maxa.maf.govt.nz/mafnet/rural- nz/overview/nzoverview003.htm

Average New Zealand Farm Size by Farm Type. (2010). Retrieved from Land Information: file:///C:/Users/tess/Downloads/average-farm-sizes-by-farm-type.pdf

Dairy nz. (1334). Retrieved from • http://www.dairynz.co.nz/publications/dairy-industry/strategy-for-sustainable-dairy- farming-2013-2020/

Stratergy for Sustainable Dairy Farming . (2013). Retrieved from Bandwidth: http://www.dairynz.co.nz/publications/dairy- industry/strategy-for-sustainable-dairy-farming-2013-2020/

Stringleman, H. (2015). Sheep farming. Retrieved from Te Ara- the Encyclopedia of New Zealand: http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/sheep-farming

Stringleman, H. (2015). Sheep farming. Retrieved from Te Ara- the Encyclopedia of New Zealand: file:///C:/Users/tess/Downloads/average-farm-sizes-by-farm-type.pdf

Wulf, M. D. (2012). New Zealand 2070. Retrieved from Population Pyramids of the World: http://populationpyramid.net/new-zealand/2070/ .

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